“Geoff Forester photograph, courtesy of the New Hampshire Community Loan Fund”.

We run a sales forecasting model every month to try to predict how we’ll do for bookings one and two months out.  Our model is a neural network model based on company performance, econometric data, and market trends. This type of model uses years of historical information to try to develop predictive trends. We run the model multiple times to get a range of predictions. Sometimes they are tightly grouped, and other times, they can bounce around. This happens even though the same data are used. When things bounce around, there are usually conflicting data. Data that usually move together begin to come apart. That’s what happened in December. Good econometric information was clashing with negative emotional measures and the predictions bounced back and forth between dismal and pretty good. The real, numerical data was showing  growth, but people were still negative on the economy.

We were expecting that the emotions would begin to turn to mirror the numbers, and that began to happen in January. Prior to January, most of of our bookings had been from recently added customers, seemingly unaffected by the slow economy, while our legacy customers, more affected by the economy, were not ordering. That changed in January. We began to see orders from companies who had been dormant for the past few years. Additionally, the newer customers started ordering larger quantities of parts. This is beginning to feel more “normal”, if such a term can describe our post recession economy. In any event, we’re enjoying the change. Hopefully, it will continue. Maybe the forecasting model will start showing more stable numbers and operate as if the world has returned to a more predictive mode.

“Geoff Forester photograph, courtesy of the New Hampshire Community Loan Fund”.

Being a manufacturer and the owner of a company, I should be in the perfect demographic category for being a Republican. The Republicans lost me a decade ago. The Republicans went from being pragmatic problem solvers, with a Main Street business mentality and little concern about what you did in your personal relationships, to fiscally reckless moralists who want to control your personal life. They say they want smaller, less intrusive government, but want to legislatively impose a morality at odds with most of the country. Increasingly, they cannot put forth a message that resonates with the country in national elections, are having trouble in statewide elections, and are only able to capture voters in isolated congressional districts. Hence, they lost the Presidential election, lost Senate seats, and lost some congressional seats, only able to keep control of the House through gerrymandered congressional districts. It’s not that I am a through and through Democrat, I just find the current day Democrats more realistic problem solvers than the current day Republicans.

I have a suggestion for the Republicans – split the party and come back to your roots. Let the radical wing nuts form their own party. They can call it the Tea Party, the Arrogant Know it All Party, or whatever suits them. They will be happier and the moderate Republicans won’t agonize over trying to coddle the vocal minority. The new Republican party will actually recognize problems, not ignore them, and offer prudent,  moderate, rational, pragmatic solutions to problems.  Many independents will join them. Many moderate Democrats will join them. Many lapsed Republicans will join them. They will offer real alternatives to our nation’s issues. They will stay out of our bedrooms and doctor’s offices. They will start to win elections and begin to rebuild themselves as a respected voice in the national dialogue.

Without some change to the tone and substance of their message, I think the Republicans will become increasingly irrelevant. I, for one, do not want a one party monopoly. Please come back.

“Geoff Forester photograph, courtesy of the New Hampshire Community Loan Fund”.

Jaffrey, New Hampshire is a small town in the southwest corner of the state. It’s an old mill town that still supports a number of manufacturing and industrial companies. I came across an interesting company yesterday, one that does “urban mining”. Urban mining is the process of extracting and recycling valuable components from discarded items. The big push is on electronic waste, which has become an immense disposal problem. The company, E-Waste Recyclers, brings in all types of electronic and electrical devices for recycling and value extraction, much like conventional mining. They have about 30,000 square feet of warehouse space filled with piles and bales of segregated components such as printed circuit boards, plastic cabinets, sheet metal frames, wiring, and other hardware. Their activity, and the value of the recycled components, is very much affected by the global economy.

Right now, there is a big market for components containing rare earth minerals. These minerals find their way into dozens of high tech products. The main source of rare earths is China, which is tightly controlling the export market, putting pressure on other sources of these minerals. Besides reopening closed mines elsewhere in the world, extracting rare earths from other sources, such as recycled magnets and electronics is a growing market.

At one time, almost all e-recycling was done in China. It’s a labor intensive process, and with few environmental and safety standards in place, and low wages for their workers, the Chinese dominated the market. With the exposure of the Chinese labor and environmental abuses, increased transportation costs, and the growing value and improved methods for extracting  value from components, environmentally safe facilities providing decent wages have sprung up closer to the sources of the e-waste. This is good news and a hidden factor in the broader subject of re-shoring manufacturing, and recycling, back to the US.

“Geoff Forester photograph, courtesy of the New Hampshire Community Loan Fund”.

Graphicast has added a new feature to our website – the Price Ballparker. This tool will give you a quick estimate of the cost of a machined casting just by entering the volume of your part, the estimated production lot size, and then comparing your part to photos of easy, moderate, and difficult to machine parts. That’s it. The Ballparker tool determines these costs based on mathematical modeling of the various production steps of thousands of production runs of parts at Graphicast. We’re able to give you a reasonable estimate of costs just by entering the information and comparing your part to the most similar part in our model. If your part is considerably smaller or larger than the parts shown, the model is less accurate. Just go to the Engineering and Design pull down menu to access the estimator. Please contact us with any questions you may have or if you want us to look at your part in more detail for a more accurate quotation.

“Geoff Forester photograph, courtesy of the New Hampshire Community Loan Fund”.

Go Big or Go Home. This was the title of an article by machine tool builder Mori Seiki about one of their customer’s decisions to buy some large pieces of equipment to give them a competitive advantage. The concept relates to much more than machine tool size.

In manufacturing, continuous improvement is a mantra of the Lean Manufacturing crowd. Small, steady steps in improving your day to day activities can lead to increased productivity, elimination of waste, and improved profitability. However, making a decision to employ these concepts in your company is not a small step. It is a big decision. It is a major cultural  transformation and a multi-year, if not a permanent commitment to a new operating philosophy. Going Lean is going big. The same could be said about committing to an ISO 9001 quality system. Or employing Theory of Constraints. Or adopting Quick Response Manufacturing.

Going big also relates to capital investments, new facilities, acquisitions, developing new products, or entering new markets. Although business people are  characterized as conservative by nature, making big decisions often requires bold risk taking and an audaciousness not present in the ranks of most corporate managers. Business dynasties aren’t created by just crunching numbers and analyzing data.  Mixing number crunching with guts and vision is what it takes to  make things happen. To paraphrase New Hampshire native son, newspaper editor Horace Greeley, “Go big, young man, go big”.